Economic Impact of COVID-19 on the Housing Market (Second Draft)

 

For someone often labeled a "housing economist," I've been slow to post much specifically on this topic (though there are plenty of housing-related slides in my larger PowerPoint library on the coronavirus.)

There's a lot to unpack, lots of data to collect and analyze.  And I'd be deceiving you if I didn't admit I have been surprised at the strength of some (not all!) housing markets.

Housing and the pandemic:  I'm working on it.  It's handy to have some commitments that help to focus the mind, provide some deadlines.

Recently I presented some of my preliminary work to the Collateral Risk Network, thanks to a kind invitation from Joan Trice and colleagues.  I presented this version in mid-February.

Now I'm excited to present an extended version of that material to the urban economics course I taught for years at the University of Wisconsin.  The course is now in the more-than-capable hands of my friend and colleague Yongheng Deng.  

Among other improvements to the presentation, I've added discussion of the "Four Quadrant Model" of real estate stocks and flows developed by Denise DiPasquale and Bill Wheaton, and sketched out how students might apply that model to pandemic-affected rental housing markets.

Here is the PowerPoint deck for the presentation to our urban economics students.  There are notes below many of the slides that provide explanation and commentary.

If you're checking these out on a phone, you might have better luck with the pdf version of the slides.  But the pdf does not include the notes, so I recommend using the PowerPoint version if your device can handle it!

These presentations included some exploratory data analysis of Federal Housing Finance Administration metropolitan-level house price indexes, and coronavirus data from Johns Hopkins.  Those data can be downloaded in spreadsheet form here.

Still a work in progress -- comments and corrections always welcome!